Oscars 2018 - What I Want To Win and What Will Win

The 90th Academy awards show is happening...well, tonight! While the whole thing is a phoney industry-trade award show, designed to pat itself on the back, the Oscars in 2018 have certainly produced one of the most varied line-ups in years. And how the Academy is going to vote following one of the most tumultuous years in Hollywood history has been the source of debate, controversy and internal politics.

So just for a bit of fun (well, until I get to Best Picture), I'm going to go through the major awards and talk about what I think will win and what I want to win.

But first, a few things:

Not going to go through the technical awards. I want Blade Runner 2049 to win as much of them as possible, but if I was to pick just one award I hope it gets Best Cinematography. The Best Animated Film section is a joke this year. Coco will win, of course. But The Boss Baby as a nominee? Really?? No nod for The Handmaiden for Best Foreign Language Film. What the hell. I want my lad Jonny Greenwood from Radiohead to win Best Score for Phantom Thread. Original Song, I would be happy with Remember Me from Coco, since it's catchy and an integral part of the film. Adapted Screenplay, I really want The Disaster Artist to win. Not because it's the best in that category (I do kinda want Logan to win...comic book/genre fanboy here) but more for the chance of Tommy Wiseau storming the stage...

Here's a picture of Tommy. Why not?

Anyway, let's get on and see how right I am!

Best Supporting Actress

Who I Want To Win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

This is a just a brilliant, soulful and genuine performance. A key cornerstone of making Lady Bird work as a film.

Paddy Power Bet: 4/1

Who Will Win: Alison Janney - I, Tonya

Haven't seen I, Tonya yet but the press are widely praising Janney's performance and this is one everyone seems to agree on is a dead cert to win.

Paddy Power Bet: 1/8

Best Supporting Actor

Who I Want To Win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

I haven't seen The Florida Project yet so this is more because I've loved the weird, quirky and over-the-top performances of Willem Dafoe for years, so it's about time he got some recognition. He's like Christopher Walken. Is he a good actor? Not too sure. Is he memorable in all of his roles? Hell yes. I have heard though that his turn in The Florida Project is quite brilliant, so it seems deserved.

Paddy Power Bet: 5/1

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Rockwell has always been an unappreciated character actor and Three Billboards has finally given him a platform to be recognised. It's a problematic role, one that will no doubt cause a wave of controversy on social media, but most of the press are in agreements that Rockwell has the strongest shot of winning.

Paddy Power Bet: 1/10

Best Actress

Who I Want To Win: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

Really hard one to choose. I loved Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water and I found both performances charming and brilliant in their own ways. However, Saoirse Ronan was something of a revelation to me for Lady Bird. I always knew Sally Hawkins was brilliant but Ronan was a genuine surprise.

Paddy Power Bet: 12/1

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Tricky one to call, but I just having a feeling. The character herself is quite problematic but channels the rage of the #MeToo movement and the voice for silenced women. Plus, she gets all the big speeches and scenery chewing the Academy tends to like.

Paddy Power Bet: 1/20

Best Actor

Who I Want To Win: Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out

Has the image of Daniel Kaluuya crying already become one of the iconic images of horror? Like up there with the twin girls in The Shining? Reagan spewing vomit in The Exorcist? Carrie covered in pig's blood? I'm pretty sure it is and this powerful image was used as a key part of the film's marketing. And Kaluuya is excellent in the film. I was tempted to put Daniel Day Lewis for his brilliant turn in Phantom Thread but so rarely is a performance like Kaluuya's nominated you simply have to give with him in an instantly iconic performance.

Paddy Power Bet: 16/1

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour

No question - he has this in the bag. Darkest Hour is one of the few films I have not seen from the line-up this year but the accolades speak for themselves and are around expected. Ok film, brilliant central Gary Oldman performance. He's been working for decades and has not had his Oscar yet. Now is the time.

Paddy Power Bet: 1/25

Best Director

Who I Want To Win: Guillermo del Toro

I've talked at length before how del Toro's projects just never seem to take off making any that do come out a mini-miracle. He's been working in the industry for years, is a brilliant, creative and smart individual and I think it's about time he gets some mainstream recognition for his years of work in the fantasy/horror genre. Plus, I would a fellow genre geek to take the award home. My mind says Paul Thomas Anderson but my heart says Guillermo.

Paddy Power Bet: 1/14

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro

Yeah, for the reasons I have outlined above, I think del Toro will win this year. I don't think The Shape of Water will win Best Picture though (it's a bit too weird for the Academy, even though it evokes tropes from classic Hollywood romance and horror films - i.e. the kind of thing the Academy loves). Might be wrong but I have a feeling. But as a runner-up prize, and because audiences and critics loved that film, they will recognise del Toro for his years of service to the film industry by awarding him best director. Then again, I used the same logic for George Miller when he was nominated for Mad Max: Fury Road and was supremely disappointed when he didn't win. Still the biggest crime in Oscar history.

Paddy Power Bet: As Above

Best Film

What I Want To Win: Get Out

OK, Get Out is not my favourite film from the line up - that goes to either Lady Bird or The Shape of Water. But Get Out is the film of the now. There's a reason this film connected the way it did and I would love for a genre film to take home the award. The fact that some Academy voters have refused to see the film is quite baffling and a sign of who ultimately has a say in what takes home - old, white men. It won't win for precisely that reason. A big part of that film is a holding a mirror up the elite white men in the story and how they silence the experiences of ethnic minority groups. Maybe a bit too close to home for the Academy?

Paddy Power Bet: 11/2

What I Think Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Quick run through why I think the other nominees won't win (ignoring Darkest Hour and Call Me By Your Name, since I've haven't seen them yet). Phantom Thread is too weird. The Shape of Water is also a little too weird - plus it's a sci-fi film (though it has a higher chance than the other films listed here). The Post is the obvious "Oscar" choice but they don't want to seem out of touch so they won't vote for it. Dunkirk was a technical marvel but that's about it. Get Out is a little too politically charged for the reasons I outlined above - plus it's a horror film. Remember this isn't a comment on the quality of the film - far from it. The Academy just likes certain kinds of films. And they traditionally don't vote for genre films.

I think it will be Three Billboards or Lady Bird. I have argued before that in the year of #MeToo, the Academy will give this ultimate award for Best Picture to a female centric film. Remember, these awards are often backed by political reasons and trying to make Hollywood look like a great place (side note - it isn't). And after the fallout from Harvey Weinstein, it makes sense to sweep all the issues Hollywood have with women (unequal pay, casting coaches etc.) under the carpet by giving the award to a film like Lady Bird. But then I got to thinking that Three Billboards may just swing it.

Consider this. The film centres on a wronged woman raging against the system in place to try and get justice for a horrible event that has traumatised her and her family, that informs all of her actions and ultimately taps in the furious divide in modern America in the era of populism and Donald Trump. Think of that from an Academy perspective. They want to make themselves look good and relevant but they have that nagging Weinstein issue...The Academy has a history of co-opting films to suit their current political agenda. Are we in any doubt that the Academy picked Moonlight not because it was the best film of that year (though, it probably was) but because, after the #OscarSoWhite controversy of the previous year, they wanted to give the gong to a film with a predominantly African-American cast? So, Three Billboards seems to tick the necessary boxes of this year - it does deal with a wronged woman, tapping into the #MeToo controversy, but ultimately diverts attention away from Hollywood's inherent problems by blaming the system in place. After all, everyone can get behind hating Donald Trump. Let's just sweep the rape, sexism and misogyny under the carpet by kind of acknowledging it but not really dealing with it... Sad? Hell yes. Cynical? Definitely. Tactical? Most certainly. And it would be even more sickening considering the decades of emotional and physical abuse that has happened.

I want to be wrong. I want a genuinely wonderful film like Lady Bird to win or even Three Billboards just for being a great film but the Academy winners nearly always follow a line of thinking that tries to make them look good. I might be seeking a conspiracy theory but this is just the way the Academy works...always remember. Old, white men vote for these things....

Paddy Power Bet: 11/10

Anyway this was fun to write, though this article will only be relevant for a few more hours...